DVP: Media Transformation Challenge’s Signature Theory of Change

MTC is built on the simple but rigorous premise that meaningful organizational change happens when leaders can diagnose what’s broken, imagine what’s possible, and design practical ways to move from here to there. MTC’s signature theory of change, DVP, offers a clear methodology for doing exactly that.

At its core, DVP is a change formula: Change = Dissatisfaction × Vision × Process. It is a way to assess the probability of successful change and to increase the likelihood that change will actually stick.

Most change efforts fail not because leaders lack effort or intent, but because one of the three ingredients of change is missing or underpowered. DVP makes this accessible. The methodology centers on diagnosing where change efforts break down and strengthening the weakest part of the equation.

As Áine Kerr, former Director of Content and Catalog Management at Spotify, explained, DVP begins with understanding/assessing the dissatisfaction-what’s not working for the people you serve.

“Your D is to try and understand what makes people dissatisfied … your clients, your customers, your listeners, your stakeholders … and to really hone in on that and do the why, why, why. There you will find a problem worth falling in love with. That’s the thing you have to stick with, but it’s always evolving.”

This framing reframes “problems” as opportunities. Dissatisfaction is not noise to ignore. It is a signal that indicates the appetite/desire for change from the current state.

DVP works because its factors are multiplicative, not additive. If any one factor is missing, change collapses:

• D × V × P = Successful, lasting change
• 0 × V × P = Bottom of the inbox
• D × 0 × P = Fast start that fizzles
• D × V × 0 = Anxiety and frustration

If dissatisfaction is missing, the initiative sinks to the bottom of the inbox. If vision is unclear, teams may start fast but fizzle out. If process is weak or nonexistent, leaders and teams experience anxiety and frustration as good intentions fail to become real-world change. If any factor is zero, the result is zero change.

Fisnik Abrashi, Senior Director of Global Customer Engagement at the Associated Press, described how this logic lands for leaders in practice: “If you’re into math, you know that anything times zero is zero. So once you see these equations as part of a program – Change equals D times V times P – if any of those three is zero, you’re going to fall flat on your face. Once you internalize that. And it takes several months. Some of us, it took more than several months. Once you get it, your level of confidence in your ability to actually achieve some sort of change increases substantially.”

This is one reason DVP is so sticky. It does not just describe change in theory; it gives leaders a way to debug their own initiatives in real time.

Dissatisfaction requires the disciplined practice of listening to friction, pain points, unmet needs, and structural failures. In MTC, participants are coached to surface dissatisfaction among stakeholders, audiences, customers, communities, and teams. The work is not to rush past discomfort, but to understand it deeply enough to locate what Kerr calls “a problem worth falling in love with.

Crucially, dissatisfaction evolves. What felt urgent six months ago may no longer be the core problem. Leaders must return to D again and again, recalibrating as conditions change.

Vision translates dissatisfaction into a compelling picture of a better future. It answers the question: what would it look like if this problem were meaningfully addressed? In MTC, vision is not aspirational fluff. It is a concrete description of change in the world around you, grounded in the realities of your organization, audience, or community.

Abrashi notes that DVP “helps you see through the fog” as you attempt to visualize the problem and what solving it would actually require. Vision clarifies what success would feel like, look like, and enable. Without it, energy dissipates into activity without direction.

Process is where strategy meets reality. It is the set of tactics, experiments, workflows, and habits that turn dissatisfaction and vision into movement. Process is the part leaders often gravitate toward first. DVP flips that instinct by insisting that process is powerless without a live problem and a clear vision.

When process is missing, leaders experience what the DVP framework names directly: anxiety and frustration. The work feels heavy, the stakes feel high, and progress stalls. Strong process does not guarantee success, but weak process almost guarantees failure.

One of the reasons DVP resonates with MTC participants is that it travels well. Abrashi notes that DVP is not only useful for professional performance challenges but also for life: “You can use that for dealing with your kids or with neighbors,” Abrashi says with a smile.

That portability is intentional. DVP applies at the level of individuals, small groups, organizational units, and whole institutions. The larger and more costly the change, the more dissatisfaction, vision, and process must be actively cultivated to overcome inertia.

MTC is designed to help senior leaders move beyond insight toward durable change. DVP provides a shared language for diagnosing stalled initiatives, recalibrating strategy, and building confidence in the capacity to lead change without burning out. It invites leaders to slow down at the beginning, fall in love with the right problem, clarify what better actually looks like, and then design processes that can survive contact with reality.

DVP does not promise easy change. It offers something more valuable: a way to see clearly why change fails, and how to give it a fighting chance to succeed.